Devon Young

Nuttin' Like a 3-2 Breakin' Ball

Cano…5th or 7th?

March 15, 2010 @ 10:29 am

I just read at Baseball Musings that the Yanks plan to bat Robinson Cano in the 5th spot of the batting order this year. I don’t know if that’s such a great idea though. Over his career, Cano’s been very good in the 7th slot. He seems most comfy there, and far more productive as a result of that comfortableness—

  • Batting 7th: .337/.371/.515
  • Batting 5th: .299/.321/.453

He hasn’t had many plate appearances in the 5th spot though, so this could be a small sample size and it would explain why he isn’t very comfortable batting 5th. The Yankees will still be a big offense team even if Cano posts a .320-.330 OBP from the 5th hole but, if Cano slacks, it could mean 1-4 less wins. That, could be a difference maker in the competitive AL East.

My Pre-Season Picks

March 10, 2010 @ 4:10 pm

This post will probably embarrass me in October, but here’s what I think will happen in 2010…

AL East

  1. New York Yankees
  2. Tampa Rays
  3. Boston Red Sox
  4. Baltimore Orioles
  5. Toronto Blue Jays

AL Central

  1. Minnesota Twins
  2. Chicago White Sox
  3. Detroit Tigers
  4. Cleveland Indians
  5. Kansas City Royals

AL West

  1. Seattle Mariners
  2. Oakland A’s
  3. Texas Rangers
  4. Los Angeles Angels

NL East

  1. Philadelphia Phillies
  2. Atlanta Braves
  3. Florida Marlins
  4. Washington Nationals
  5. New York Mets

NL Central

  1. St Louis Cardinals
  2. Milwaukee Brewers
  3. Cincinnati Reds
  4. Chicago Cubs
  5. Houston Astros
  6. Pittsburgh Pirates

NL West

  1. Los Angeles Dodgers
  2. Colorado Rockies
  3. San Francisco Giants
  4. Arizona Diamondbacks
  5. San Diego Padres

I see Tampa and Atlanta winning the wild card’s, but the World Series will be a Mariners-Cardinals matchup. Although I’m very tempted to pick Philly to have another go. It’s just that I feel Seattle and St Louis have the better pitching, and that can win out in playoff series. Who do I think wins the Series? Cardinals…in 7.

Nathan’s Replacement?

March 9, 2010 @ 1:17 pm

Ouch. I just read that Joe Nathan has ’significant’ tear of elbow ligament; season in doubt. The Twins are about a month away from opening a new ballpark, and their star closer who’s one of the best closers in the history of the game, has a serious injury find him. The article says it’s possible he might not need surgery, but even if he doesn’t…how will it affect his delivery? Personally, I think he’ll probably need surgery.

Manager Gardenhire says that if they have to find another closer, it’ll be someone who’s already in the organization. If they asked me, I’d point to Rob Delaney who spent ‘09 going from AA New Britain to AAA Rochester.

Now, at first glance, Delaney’s 4.53 ERA in AAA probably makes you think I’m insane for recommending him, but that ERA’s mostly due to a nasty outing against Syracuse on August 17 where he allowed 6 ER’s without getting a single out. Take that one bad day out of the equation and his record from July 1 onward was 4-2, 6 SV’s, 2.51 ERA. Nice eh?

Now that gives you a better idea how he typically pitched, once he adjusted to AAA hitters (took him about 2 weeks to adjust). He should be given a chance to close in Minnesota, if Nathan is out for the year. I’ll actually be surprised if the Twins don’t keep him in the bullpen all season at the very least, even if Nathan tries to pitch through the year.

PS. I’ll be writing on this blog a lot more, now that the season is warming up…and writing a lot more often than last season. Oh yes, I’ll also be redesigning the site soon.

The Dinkelman Connection

February 7, 2010 @ 12:17 am

I’m thinking the Orlando Hudson signing, is all about Brian Dinkelman.

See, the Twins finally decided that Steven Tolleson wasn’t the answer to their 2nd base issue, so they let him go on waivers. Then they sign a vet, Orlando Hudson, which looks like they’re just replacing one guy with another. Reality check though, even though Hudson’s offense has been improving year by year, he’s entering his age 32 season. So he probably has 1-3 definite good years left in him before his talents begin to fade or level off. That would be just enough time to fill the slot until Brian Dinkelman develops into a major leaguer. It makes sense to me.

Dinkelman put up a .383 OBP in AA new Britain this past year, which means he’ll probably be here in Rochester this summer, knocking on Minnesota’s door for a possible September call-up. He’s the highest ranked prospect in the Twins system who plays 2nd base.

Funny Twins Commercial

January 28, 2010 @ 11:18 am

Those of you living in Minnesota have probably already seen this, but I just found out about it a couple weeks ago and I think it’s one of the most clever commercials ever. Great PR.

My 2010 IBWAA HOF Ballot

December 28, 2009 @ 4:25 pm

I won’t do too many of these non-card blog entries, but I felt this particular subject made a lot of sense. I’m a voter in the IBWAA and wanted to share what my ballot choices are—

  • Bert Blyleven
  • Roberto Alomar
  • Barry Larkin
  • Alan Trammell
  • Tim Raines
  • Edgar Martinez
  • Mark McGwire
  • Dale Murphy
  • Fred McGriff
  • Andre Dawson

Bert Blyleven. Simply one of the greatest pitchers of the 20th century. Also one of the most underrated. There’s a lot of amazing stats when you look into him.

Roberto Alomar. He got on base a lot, stole nearly 500 bases, had more runs created than all but five 2nd baseman since 1901, and played a great 2nd base. I always loved watching him play defense. I can’t think of another 2nd baseman in my lifetime that I enjoyed more.

Barry Larkin. A class act who got on base a lot, has stats comparable to Alomar, won 3 consecutive gold gloves, and helped his team beat the mighty A’s in 1990’s World Series.

Alan Trammell. A great shortstop from the 1980’s low-scoring era who has the most win shares of any player not yet in the Hall of Fame. I loved him when I was growing up…one of my favorite Tigers. He was a tough choice for me, but I finally was swayed…the more I thought about all those win shares.

Tim Raines. Almost 400 win shares, over 1600 runs created, all those IBE’s, no whiff of steroid talk, and all those walks he drew while pitchers and catchers did NOT want him on the basepaths. He was arguably the 2nd greatest leadoff batter ever, 2nd only to Rickey Henderson.

Edgar Martinez. Find me another DH who compiled 1638 runs created. Simply the best DH ever. Do we keep pitchers out of Cooperstown because they can’t hit? no. Then why should we keep the best DH out of the Hall of Fame just because he didn’t play defense a lot? Doesn’t make sense. He had over 8,600 plate appearances and slugged .515 while getting on base over 40% of the time. By the way, everyone (eligible) with a .400+ OBP and 7300 plate appearances is already in the Hall of Fame. Think about that.

Mark McGwire. Aahhh, one of the toughest decisions I made. His near 600 HR’s, being a bash brother, being part of 1998, 342 win shares, and just dominating as a home run threat for over a decade when he was healthy, would normally get anyone in as a first ballot HOFer. Yet, we all know he took something to pump himself up and we’re all not quite sure what to do with him now. Then, back in February, we find out about an old SI article from 1969 where people such as Bob Gibson admits to taking whatever they can to get an edge and play better. This made me realize that I shouldn’t penalize McGwire or anyone else for anything pre-2003. After all, nobody complained 40 years ago. Nobody made up any rules to really stop this or penalize those who’d been doing it. It’s been going on and on. It was allowed. Letting something go on without penalty and then suddenly saying it should be a problem before there’s a set rule against it, is a type of entrapment. So Mark shouldn’t be penalized for whatever he used, or else we should go back and remove Gibson and some others from Cooperstown.

Dale Murphy. All around nice guy who was arguably the best player for half of the 1980’s. I think with the Braves being on TV so much back then in every corner of the country, Murph was a hero to every baseball loving kid in those days and is still remembered very fondly by everyone who was into baseball at the time. He might not have the overall career stats that some others do, but I think he definitely belongs in the Hall for what he did for the game in a low scoring era.

Fred McGriff. Great power hitter, earned 305 win shares, 1550 RBI’s, slugged over .500, is just enough for me. People don’t think too much of him anymore because he didn’t increase his home run rate when the late 90’s power boom happened. I think he’s barely a Hall of Famer.

Andre Dawson. For years I’ve thought of Dawson as a near-HOF but not quite worthy of the Hall of Fame because he barely ever got on base. How can I honestly call that a great player? Then I noticed his win shares, all 340 of them. Then I noticed his IBE (Isolated Bases Earned = TB+SB+BB), all 5690 of them. Then I noticed his OBP when there was a man on 2nd and/or 3rd. That got me thinking about how productive he was even though he barely got on base. When his team really needed him to be great, he was great. Slowly my mind has turned in favor of Dawson. I mean seriously, his overall OBP is .323, which just isn’t Hall of Fame material, but managing to produce those win shares, IBE’s, and great OBP in the right situations, while barely getting on base when bases were empty… that’s pretty amazing. The guy was seriously clutch.

VORP, Valencia, and Jones

September 15, 2009 @ 10:13 pm

Just a short note for now ’cause college is eating up my time and so is work. I’m sure I’ll adjust in a couple of weeks and give you plenty to read in the IL offseason. But for now, I want to express surprise and disbelief that the Twins are not calling up Danny Valencia anytime soon, despite Justin Morneau’s injury. Some of you might not quite grasp why this is shocking to me, partly because of what Joe Posnanski wrote today about Replacement Level Players. Note the part where he uses two examples of players who’ve lived in AAA but when given the chance this year, they’ve done quite well in the majors. Oh, the part that stings is that the two players he uses as examples are Garrett Jones and Randy Ruiz… who were both Rochester Red Wings in 2008. Yeah, they could’ve been doing their damage as Twins this year. Which just makes me want to ask why Danny Valencia isn’t getting a deserved September call up.

Before anyone tells me that Jones stunk when he played 31 games in Minnesota in ‘07, please go check his splits. His weakness was that he couldn’t hit lefties, but he seemed to come out of his funk in September, hitting a solid .297/.341/.486 in 14 games (more games than any other month that year), so he started to adjust to major league pitching and then the Twins gave up on him. It should also be noted that when Jones was batting in the 6th spot in the order, he was getting on base at a .368 clip and slugged a purdy .588! Then the Twins sent him packing for some odd reason and the next time he’s in the majors, he just picks up where he left off and everybody’s wowwed.

PS. if you don’t know what VORP is, here’s the definition.

Pino Traded?!?

August 28, 2009 @ 9:36 pm

Yohan Pino’s been traded. Are you kidding me? That’s not funny. Apparently he was sent to Cleveland to complete the Pavano deal.

It never crossed my mind that Pino was tradeable, especially after peeking at his stats. Never. Crossed. My. Mind. How do you trade away a prospect like Yohan Pino for Carl Pavano? My only guess is that the Twins actually think they have a shot at the playoffs this year and are willing to sell out their future for it. I feel like suing the Twins for this trade. It was so stupid. It reminds me of the Tigers trading away a young John Smoltz for Doyle Alexander, or the Red Sox trading off a young Jeff Bagwell for …who??

In all likelihood, it won’t turn out that historic. Still, this was crazy dumb. Obviously the Indians GM reads my blog.

Quick Hits: August 27

August 27, 2009 @ 5:09 pm

If Rochester beats LeHigh Valley tonight, we’ll be 66-66 with 14 games to play. That would make the final couple weeks pretty exciting even if we haven’t got a shot at the playoffs. If you live near Rochester, come to Frontier Field and support the team in the drive for a winning record. If you can’t come, then listen to the game online at WHTK.com.

10th Inning Stretch thinks Twins 3B Crede will be on the DL soon. I agree. I think as soon as rosters are expanded & Danny Valencia is called up, Crede will go on the DL simultaneously.

Armando Gabino’s major league debut was a flop. Really. If he put up those numbers against the Yankees, Red Sox, or Rangers, I would say it wasn’t a flop. But it was Baltimore. And this is ok, because he won’t be fully baked ’til 2010.

I’m going to try recording one of the TV broadcast games during the upcoming Buffalo series & put them online. I’ll probably do Friday night’s. A friend of mine has this VCR-to-DVD machine so I can put the games on DVD and then break it up into chunks and put it on YouTube. I’ve slacked on this during the summer, and I really feel a need to get at least 1 more game done before the offseason….besides, I know you all want to see Danny Valencia before he arrives in Minnesota.

Did you know that Yohan Pino has a 1.82 ERA over 34 2/3 IP this month? Opposing batters are hitting just .177 against him. Yikes! I think he’s adjusted to AAA now. What really tickles me pink, is that he’s actually got better numbers than he did when he was in New Britain earlier in the year, with almost the same amount of innings. Does he get better against better opponents? It seems to look that way, and that would be a killer pitcher on the Minnesota staff…..next year. Yeah, don’t expect too much from him if he’s called up next month. He’ll need some time to adjust, and then he should be lights out.

Don’t worry about Anthony Swarzak yet. Lots of great pitchers had bad first seasons. Nolan Ryan was 6-10 with a mere 90 ERA+ in his first 23 games….and he was all-time greatness in the works. Swarzak could still be a #1 starter for Minnesota in the future. Stranger things have happened. Ask Dave Stewart how he went from 14 game loser to 4 consecutive 20 win seasons.

Since Mike Gosling left Rochester, he’s just 0-2 with an ERA of 5.27. When he was here earlier in the year, he went 7-1, 4.37 ERA.

Juan Morillo has been awful this month. 0-2 via a 6.98 ERA. Opposing batters are hitting .383 off him. Basically, he’s making them all look like Joe Mauer.

Red Wings leader in runs scored, Jason Pridie, still hasn’t gotten a base hit in the major leagues. I hope they call him up next month just to try to get him a base hit. A bloop single or an error-generously-called-a-hit… anything, please. I’m starting to worry that he’ll never get one.

David Winfree leads the Red Wings in doubles and strikeouts. Seems like an odd combo to me.

Danny Valencia walks just 6 times in 48 games, which is once every 8 games. Then walks 2 times in 10, which is once every 5 games. I hope there’s something to that.

Random Thoughts

August 15, 2009 @ 5:05 pm

Ok, so I’m finally finding time to make some updates. So I’m going to throw out some random things I’m noticing.

I’ve complained so much about Phil Humber, that I actually feel obligated to point out that he’s suddenly pitching very good. Really, he is. Check this out:

Period W-L ERA
April-Jul 5 3-6 6.15
Jul 10-Aug 13 4-1 3.79

…now if that ain’t improvement, I don’t know what is. he’s nearly cut his ERA in half. I remember watching him on TV, when he pitched the July 10th game in Syracuse and was pretty surprised he had a good outing. Not just that his numbers were good, but that he actually kept the Syracuse batters off balance and really pitched well. At the time, I figured “even bad pitchers have their good days”. That’s all I thought it was. The Twins might call him up in September just because he’s doing well and he was part of the Santana trade. It’d be a nice way of saying to the fans “see, something we got for Johan is working out”…good pr.

Danny Valencia went into a slump just after I last blogged. At one point, he was hitting an awful .105 over a 10 game stretch. This, after hitting close to .400 for about a month since being called up from New Britain. He’s come out of it though, and has been .324 over his last 10 as of today. I’m glad about all this. Why? Because how a player deals with a slump, tells you a lot about the player. What did we learn about Valencia from his slump? Well, we learned he doesn’t give up and that he survives it. He doesn’t just fall apart and fall down and stay there. Everybody goes through slumps. His average is back up to .301 now. I believe you twin fans will see your third baseman of the future during September in the dome. Minnesota would be nuts not to get him up there. He seems to thrive on tough situations, so…I’m convinced being thrown into an AL division race, would just make him play a little harder. My only concern about Valencia is that he does not walk, and that’s a big concern to me. I’ve been noticing this the entire time he’s playing for Rochester.

Yohan Pino hasn’t been the pitcher (yet?) that I thought he’d be. He was awful in July, but he’s cut his ERA by 2 runs already this month while pitching more innings than he did last month. So, perhaps he was just caught up in the emotions of being in AAA? Let’s hope. So far in August, he’s 2.89 in 18 2/3 IP with 17 K’s to his name. If the offense could just score a little, he’d have more than 0 wins in his 3 August starts. My biggest concern with Pino, is his righty/lefty splits. Against right handed batters, his ERA is a nice 2.45, but when he faces lefties, his ERA balloons to 6.23. Yikes! If that doesn’t change, then he should go back to the bullpen and be a right-handed batter specialist when he goes major league. And yes, I do think he has major league stuff. It would be nice to see him as a September callup, but I don’t think they’ll do it if they have a shot at the division title.

Trevor Plouffe, Dustin Martin, and Matt Macri, are all batting beneath .250 for the season. I have no idea what’s wrong with them, but I know they’re better than that. I don’t even know what to say about that. It’s pithetic that 3 of your main prospects in AAA can’t even average 1 hit out of every 4 at-bats. Maybe they’re all just having an off year at the same time? Let’s hope. They’ve had their moments, but they’ve failed to be consistently solid at the plate.

Reid Santos should go back to the ‘pen and be the left-handed batter specialist. ERA of just 3.32 against lefties. As a starter, his overall stats are 1-5 with a 5.19 ERA. If Twins brass asked me… I’d say that Santos be good in the major league bullpen next year if used as a situational pitcher.

The only reason Jose Morales is in Rochester is because Joe Mauer is in Minnesota. I don’t know why Morales isn’t the backup for the Twins. Morales has a .410 OBP here in AAA. That’s phenomenal & wasteful to leave him in AAA. If they don’t want to use him as a backup, they should trade him for another peice of the puzzle they need desperately.

Last player I want to bring up is Rob Delaney. He should be another guy the Twins will call up in September. Since the All-Star break, he’s been killing the International League with a 1.62 ERA and opponents are batting just .203 off him. That’s domination. he’s ready for the majors.